Hurricane Milton Could Hit Category 4: How It Compares to Helene, Katrina

Hurricane Milton may strengthen to a Category 4 storm as it strikes the U.S. just over a week after Helene devastated the Southeast – here is how Milton compares to Helene and its only rival, Hurricane Katrina.
Milton is forecast to make landfall on Wednesday evening in Florida, which is still reeling from the devastation brought by Helene. At least 227 people have been killed across six states after Helene came ashore on September 26.
This death toll, published in the Associated Press’ most recent update, makes Helene the second-deadliest hurricane to strike the U.S. mainland in the past half-century, surpassed only by Hurricane Katrina, which claimed at least 1,833 lives in 2005.
However, Milton is set to become a “major hurricane” later on Monday, meaning it will be a Category 3 storm, with winds of 111-129 miles per hour on Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, according to the National Hurricane Center’s most recent advisory, issued at 1:00 a.m. CDT on Monday.
But like Helene, Milton could strengthen to a Category 4 intensity within the next few days, the Center said in its forecast discussion on Sunday night.
Hurricane Milton is could end up being “a historic, once-in-a-lifetime storm for Floridians,” according to AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter. Evacuations have been ordered by Florida’s emergency management division.
When Helene made landfall near Perry, Florida, in the state’s Big Bend region, it was a Category 4 hurricane.
Comparatively, Katrina made landfall as a Category 1 storm in Florida on August 25, 2005, and quickly intensified to Category 5 by August 28, as it moved over the Gulf of Mexico.
It then weakened and ended up being classified as a Category 3 hurricane by the time it made landfall in southeast Louisiana on August 29.
Both Helene and Katrina brought with them winds of up to 140 miles per hour, with Katrina’s top wind speed reaching 175 miles per hour.
The two hurricanes also brought storm surges and torrential rain. Helene flooded Asheville in North Carolina, with a total of 13.98 inches of rainfall between September 25 to 27, and Katrina left 80 percent of New Orleans underwater by August 31, 2005.
Milton is expected to raise water levels by two-to-four feet above ground level along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, the National Weather Service said, bringing large and destructive waves to coastal regions. It is also set to produce rainfall of two-to-four inches across portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula.
Helene’s peak storm surge is estimated to have reached more than 15 feet above ground in the Florida Big Bend region, according to global forecasting site Weather Underground (WU)’s post-storm modeling.
Katrina’s highest storm surge was recorded at 11.5 feet, while Philpot, in Florida, saw the storm’s maximum rainfall of 7.80 inches.
The National Hurricane Center said: “Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin as early as (Monday) morning in the warning area, and hurricane conditions are possible beginning (Monday) afternoon.”
A ‘Hurricane Watch’, which means that hurricane conditions are possible, is in place for Celestun to Cabo Catoche while a ‘Tropical Storm Warning’, which means that tropical storm conditions are expected at some point within 36 hours, is in place for Celestun to Cancun.
On Saturday night, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency in 35 counties: Brevard, Broward, Charlotte, Citrus, Collier, DeSoto, Flagler, Glades, Hardee, Hendry, Hernando, Highlands, Hillsborough, Indian River, Lake, Lee, Manatee, Marion, Martin, Miami-Dade, Monroe, Okeechobee, Orange, Osceola, Palm Beach, Pasco, Pinellas, Polk, Putnam, Sarasota, Seminole, St. Johns, St. Lucie, Sumter, and Volusia.